The WTI Crude market moved choppy during the month of July, and I think there is likely to be more of the same for traders. In the end, there are a lot of concerns about the economy, and that obviously has a huge impact on what happens with oil.
Ultimately, the market will continue to struggle with the $100 level, as we try to see whether or not the US dollar will continue to be a major wrecking ball when it comes to the value of commodities, not to mention the fact that there are a lot of concerns as to whether there will be enough demand. or not. In an environment where the global economy can slow down, the demand for crude oil will decline with it.
From a technical analysis point of view, it is worth noting that we are above the 50-week moving average, but below the previous ascending trend line. This could be a clue, as we have broken enough of the trend lines that there is sure to be a lot of selling pressure. There is also a question about the possibility of whether we will see enough supply or not, as many OPEC countries have decided that they will not increase production, so at this point, we will see a very interesting supply/demand equation.
At this point, I’m looking at this market from the perspective of the breakdown across the 50 week moving average. If that happens, we are likely to continue lower, and reach the $80 level. I think it’s very likely we’ve hit highs for the year, so I think at best we have a sideways move through August, Perhaps a “selling advances” type scenario. If we regain control of the previous ascending trendline, then we can make an argument for a bit of a recovery. However, I think the next couple of months will still be very volatile, so positioning will be critical to keeping your account somewhat safe. In general, this is a difficult time to trade crude oil.