EUR/USD Forecast for Today: Weak Consolidation in the Trend

The euro is not among the weaker major currencies, but the dollar is strong.

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My previous recommendations were not activated on May 30th to trade the EURUSD because unfortunately the session low was just below the support I set at $1.0745.

Today’s recommendations for trading the EUR/USD currency pair

  • The risk is 0.75%.
  • Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today.

Selling trading idea

  • Take a sell trade after the price action reverses to the downside on the H1 time frame immediately after the next touch of the $1.0710 level.
  • Set your stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss order to break even once the trade has made a profit of 20 pips.
  • Take 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips of profit and let the rest of the position work.

Buy trading ideas

  • Take a long trade right after the price action reverses to the upside on the H1 time frame right on the next touch of $1.0631 or $1.0600.
  • Set your stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss order to break even once the trade has made a profit of 20 pips.
  • Take 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips of profit and let the rest of the position work.

The best way to identify a classic “price action reversal” is to close an hourly candle, such as a pin bar, doji, outside candle or even just a sunken candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or areas by observing the price action that occurs at the specified levels.

EUR/USD trading analysis

I wrote on May 30th that we are seeing strong bullish momentum in the short term, so I thought that looking for short term long trades would be the best strategy for today.

This was a good expectation as the London session that day saw a push higher by this currency pair.

The technical picture is now quite different, as we have seen the US dollar reasserting itself in a long-term bullish trend in recent days. However, the Euro is one of the strongest of the majors, so we are only seeing a slow decline here.

The price chart below shows a slow, choppy but definitely bearish trend over the medium term, with the price pushed down by a downtrend line and a major resistance level at $1.0712. If you were to trade this currency pair today, it would probably be very dangerous to do anything else except look for a short trade from a downward reversal from this level.

The price is also likely to be vulnerable to a sudden rebound to the upside from $1.0650 or below, so there may not be many selling points on the table even in a successful short trade.

It may be wise to trade other currency pairs that move more freely today, such as the USD/JPY.

Daily chart of the euro against the US dollar
The chart was generated by . platform TradingView

There is nothing to be expected today regarding the Euro or the US Dollar.

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