Investing.com – The $300 rally since November was just the beginning of a larger move, but one market analyst warns investors not to chase the market because prices have run out and a negative correction is needed first.
Carly Garner, co-founder of brokerage DiCarly Trading, said she expects gold to eventually breach all-time highs above $2,100 an ounce this year.
She added that after the $2,100 level, the next major resistance point would be at $2,600, which is an extension of the long-term trend line that has been in place since 2016. But she said gold would not reach those record levels overnight.
“It is rare for gold to take off without a correction,” she said. “Gold can be a very difficult market to trade and can be punishing for traders who become unsuspecting,” she added.
In the near term, Garner said she wouldn’t be surprised to see a correction back to $1,800 an ounce.
“It would be healthy,” she said. She added, “I think a lot of people who missed these highs are waiting for a correction.”
An important reason why Garner expects a correction to happen is that many investors dumped the precious metal after last year’s disappointing performance as inflation soared to a 40-year high.
“At the end of the year, no one was watching gold, and no one was talking about it, but with this rise gold started to get some attention,” she said. She added, “At some point, gold will become the focus of attention and that’s when we see prices go up.”
Along with gold prices reaching resistance just above $1,940 an ounce, Garner noted that the US dollar is also finding support with the US dollar trading below 102.
Garner said that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision next week may provide some short-term bullish momentum for the dollar, which will affect gold. However, the longer term Fed is close to ending the monetary tightening cycle, which could eventually push the US Dollar Index back to around 90 points.
“All markets, except for the dollar market, have given up all their gains that resulted from the chaos of 2022,” she said. “I think we are on the cusp of a bull market for the US dollar turning into a bear market.”
Another bullish factor for gold was last year’s chaos in the gold market. In a recent comment on Twitter, Garner said she believes it will go down to zero.
“Bitcoin can continue to go up, but it’s not worth anything,” she said. “I think investors are tired of all the volatility and are ready to put their money into more traditional assets,” she added.
In terms of what gold investors can expect in terms of near-term price action, Garner said they should look to . Garner also expects silver to rise, but said she does not rule out a correction, bringing the price back to $20 an ounce.
However, in the long term, she expects silver prices to rise to the $30 level, and it is likely to rise to $36 an ounce if she has enough momentum.
“I look at silver very much as a leader because it has industrial properties, as well as being a precious metal. It’s a little bit behind both and gold. The red flag for me is that the metals markets in general, including copper and gold, are pulling back a bit before they We resume the hike.