AUD/USD forecast today

The Aussie hardly reacted to the RBA’s rate hike today.

My previous recommendations last Thursday produced a profitable sell trade after the hourly pin bar rejected the resistance I had set at 0.6844.

Today’s recommendations for trading the AUD/USD currency pair

  • risk 0.75%
  • Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time on Wednesday.

Selling trading idea

  • Take a sell trade after the price action reverses to the downside on the H1 time frame right on the next touch of 0.6848.
  • Set your stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss order to break the breakeven once the trade has made a profit of 20 pips.
  • Take 50% of the position as profit when the price makes a profit of 20 pips and let the rest of the position work.

Buy trading ideas

  • Take a long trade right after the price action reverses to the upside on the H1 timeframe right on the next touch of 0.6719 or 0.6683.
  • Set your stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss order to break the breakeven once the trade has made a profit of 20 pips.
  • Take 50% of the position as profit when the price makes a profit of 20 pips and let the rest of the position work.

The best way to identify a classic “price action reversal” is to close an hourly candle, such as a pin bar, doji, outside candle or even just a sunken candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or areas by monitoring the price action that occurs at the specified levels.

AUD/USD trading analysis

I wrote in my previous forecast last Thursday that AUDUSD finds a strong support level at 0.6797, but is likely to regain some ground before falling again. Therefore, short trading from the reversal to the downside at 0.6844 was the best opportunity I saw. This was a good look because it enabled a profitable sell trade from the 0.6844 rejection.

The US strength continued over the past week, although most currencies rose against the dollar over the past day. The Australian dollar is no exception, but the gains were very small. The Reserve Bank of Australia just announced a 0.50% rate hike and released its latest rate statement, but these were by no means any surprises and the market seemed to hardly react.

The only interesting feature today in this pair looks like a very strong and pivotal resistance level at 0.6848, which is stuck to the half of the figure at 0.6850. I think the best approach here today is to wait until that level is reached and see what happens.

If there is a reversal to the downside at 0.6848, a short trade should be a good opportunity.

If the price holds above 0.6848 and rises within 2 hours, the price is likely to go higher. The case to the upside here will be reinforced by the fact that we are already seeing the bearish trend line broken to the upside, as shown in the price chart below.

In the unlikely event that the price will reach 0.6719 before hitting 0.6848, if there is a bounce to the upside from the first touch, a long trade could be interesting. This level, like 0.6848, should also be interesting to speculators.


The chart was generated by . platform TradingView

Regarding the US dollar, there will be a release of ISM Services PMI data at 3pm London time. Regarding the Australian dollar, there will be a release of GDP data at 2:30 AM.

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